HIGH POINT, N.C., July 13, 2015 – Brian McDonald, assistant director of High Point University’s Survey Research Center, presented a series of lessons learned from the HPU Poll’s work on the 2014 U.S. Senate race in North Carolina that may be applied to polling future presidential and midterm elections at the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR).
During the AAPOR panel presentation, “Evaluating Polling Accuracy,” McDonald discussed polling challenges, approaches and the outcome of the 2014 North Carolina Senate race. Thom Tillis won the election, but most polls showed an edge for Kay Hagan in this heavily polled and well-resourced campaign. McDonald explained how the gaps in support between demographic groups may have impacted projections.
The panel also included national survey research experts from Huffington Post’s Pollster.com, Edison Research and Abt SRBI as well as academic public opinion researchers.
“Our panel discussed polling accuracy, sources of error in midterm election polls and the impact of third party candidates in polling outcomes,” says McDonald. “Attending the AAPOR conference gave me an important chance to showcase our research as well as the opportunity to network with other experts in the field of public opinion research.”
Further results and methodological details from the past studies can be found at the Survey Research Center website at http://www.highpoint.edu/src/.
The HPU Poll reports methodological details in accordance with the standards set out by AAPOR’s Transparency Initiative, and the HPU Survey Research Center is a charter member of the initiative. For more information, see http://transparency.aapor.org/index.php/transparency.
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