HIGH POINT, N.C., Feb. 14, 2012 – The most recent HPU Poll finds President Barack Obama in a tight race with an unnamed Republican candidate. Democratic and Republican candidates for the Congress receive almost equal support. And almost half of North Carolinians are paying closer attention to the 2012 elections than in 2010, though they have not yet spent much time on candidate Web or social media sites.
Presidential race questions – Registered Voters
If the election for President of the United States were held today, would you be voting for Barack Obama or his Republican opponent?
Barack Obama – 42 percent
Republican opponent – 47 percent
(Other) – 2 percent
(Don’t know/refused) – 9 percent
(For registered voters, n = 538, margin of sampling error is approximately 5.3 percent)
Congressional generic ballot questions – Registered Voters
If the elections for U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, which party’s candidate would you vote for in your congressional district – the Democratic Party’s candidate or the Republican Party’s candidate?
Democratic candidate – 42 percent
Republican candidate – 40 percent
(Don’t know/refused) – 18 percent
(For registered voters, n = 538, margin of sampling error is approximately 5.3 percent)
“Taken together, these findings highlight the divisions of North Carolina electorate on the races for the Presidency and Congress,” said HPU Poll director Martin Kifer. “We have known for some time that President Obama would likely face a competitive race here in North Carolina. These numbers foreshadow a competitive contest for North Carolina’s electoral votes.”
Republican Primary for President – Registered Voters
If the Republican presidential primary were held today, would you vote for Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, or Rick Santorum (responses rotated)?
Newt Gingrich – 19 percent
Ron Paul – 11 percent
Mitt Romney – 30 percent
Rick Santorum – 13 percent
(Don’t know/refused) – 26 percent
(Asked of registered voters who identify with the Republican Party or are independent/unaffiliated, excluding respondents who said they would not vote in the Republican Primary on May 8th, n = 250, margin of sampling error is approximately 6.2 percent)
“These numbers suggest that Mitt Romney currently has an edge in the North Carolina Republican primary,” adds Kifer. “But the primary campaign has thus far seen a lot of movement in candidate support. We’ll be watching closely to see if North Carolinians reevaluate the candidates closer to the primary date.”
Campaign Attention questions
Would you say you have been following news about the 2012 elections more closely or less closely than you did in 2010?
More closely – 49 percent
Less closely – 32 percent
(About the same as 2010) – 17 percent
(Don’t know/refused) – 2 percent
During the past month, have you accessed the campaign website of a presidential candidate such as Barack Obama or one of his possible Republican opponents?
Yes, Barack Obama – 8 percent
Yes, one of the Republican candidates – 7 percent
Yes, both – 7 percent
No – 76 percent
(Refused) – 1 percent
(Asked of respondents who are computers users, n = 565, margin of sampling error is approximately 4.3 percent.)
During the past month, have you accessed a social networking site like the campaign website of a presidential candidate such as Barack Obama or one of his possible Republican opponents?
Yes, Barack Obama – 9 percent
Yes, one of the Republican candidates – 3 percent
Yes, both – 4 percent
No – 76 percent
(Asked of respondents who are computers users and use social networking sites, n = 405, margin of sampling error is approximately 5 percent.)
“Although residents of North Carolina say they are paying closer attention to this campaign than in 2012, that focus has not yet moved online,” said assistant HPU Poll director Sadie Leder. “We’ll continue tracking this trend as the fall elections approach.”
The High Point University Survey Research Center fielded the survey from Jan. 30-Feb. 2 and Feb. 4-9, 2012. The responses came from 660 adults with landline and cellular telephones in North Carolina selected by a Random Digit Dial (RDD) method giving the survey a margin of sampling error of approximately 4 percentage points. For smaller subsamples the margin of sampling error is larger. In addition to sampling error, factors such as question wording and other methodological choices in conducting survey research can introduce additional error into the findings of opinion polls.
Further results and methodological details from the survey and can be found at the Survey Research Center website, http://src.highpoint.edu/, or from Dr. Martin Kifer, the center’s director, at [email protected] or 336-841-9333.
At High Point University, every student receives an extraordinary education in an inspiring environment with caring people.℠ HPU, located in the Piedmont Triad region of North Carolina, is a liberal arts institution with over 4,200 undergraduate and graduate students at campuses in High Point and Winston-Salem. It is ranked by US News and World Report at No. 3 among Regional Colleges in the South. Parade Magazine lists HPU in the top 25 private schools in the nation. HPU was selected in the 2010-2011 list of “Colleges of Distinction,” as well as one of the top green schools in the country by the Sierra Club. The university offers 44 undergraduate majors, 40 undergraduate minors and 10 graduate degree programs. It is accredited by the Commission of Colleges of the Southern Association of Colleges and Schools, and is a member of the NCAA, Division I and the Big South Conference. Visit High Point University on the Web at highpoint.edu.
# # #
Pam Haynes
Communication Specialist
336-841-9055
[email protected]