HIGH POINT, N.C., Feb. 18, 2013 – Dr. Jerry Fox, associate professor of economics, recently gave a research presentation at the 2013 Academyof Economics and Finance Annual Meeting in Mobile, Ala.
His presentation, titled “War, the economy, and partisan effects upon the presidential vote,” detailed the influence of war casualties, economic growth, and unemployment on presidential election outcomes during the post-WWII era. The presentation discussed the differences in the reelection vote amongst presidents who initiate war compared to presidents who inherit war from previous administrations.
“My analysis estimates the impact of war casualties and the economy upon presidential election outcomes,” Fox says. “War fatalities during the Korean, Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan conflicts adversely impact the in-party presidential reelection vote share. The casualty effect upon the reelection vote, however, is more adverse upon war-initiator incumbencies compared to war-inheritor administrations. Real GDP growth-per-capita and unemployment are also significant influences upon the presidential vote. The results of the analysis suggest that unemployment is a bigger factor upon the reelection vote for Democratic incumbencies compared to Republican presidents.
Fox relates his presentation to his macroeconomics class, noting that macroeconomics affects politics, and politics also affects macroeconomics.
“The condition of the economy influences voter sentiment of the president,” Fox says. “The president, in turn, responds to public attitudes when promoting macroeconomic policies. Finally, economic policies affect macroeconomic performance.”
Fox is currently writing an academic book for “Business Express Press titled U.S. Politics and the American Macroeconomy.”
Fox teaches macroeconomics and international economics in the Phillips School of Business.