MENU

Professor Publishes Research in High-Ranking Macroeconomics Journal

02.14.2013

Jerry FoxHIGH POINT, N.C., Feb. 7, 2013 – Dr. Jerry Fox, associate professor of economics at High Point University, recently published his research in the high-ranking “Journal of Macroeconomics.”

The paper, “Macroeconomic time consistency and wartime presidential approval,” is an analysis that examines the influence of war and the economy upon presidential popularity during the post-WWII period of 1948-2012.

“The article estimates the effects of war casualties and the macroeconomy upon presidential job approval in the post-WWII era,” Fox explains. “The analysis finds that the military casualties during the Korean, Vietnam, and Iraq and Afghanistan wars adversely impacted presidential popularity. The casualty effect upon job approval, however, is more adverse upon presidencies that initiate extended wars compared to subsequent administrations that inherit long wars from earlier presidencies.”

Fox notes that inflation, unemployment, war rallies and solder casualties are systematic factors upon presidential popularity in each of the three wartime periods. The casualty effect upon job approval is greatest during the Vietnam conflict, while economic influence upon popularity is greatest during the Iraq and Afghanistan wars.

“The median citizen’s macroeconomic preference is approximately time consistent in all three war episodes, with an inflation target of zero and an unemployment target close to the natural unemployment rate,” he adds. “This implies that macroeconomic overheating during wartime likely causes presidential popularity to decline.”

Fox says he is able to apply the principles in his research back to the classroom – specifically in his macroeconomics course. In particular, the results of his research show that the state of the macroeconomy affects political factors, such as presidential job approval and presidential election outcomes.

“The condition of the economy affects voter sentiment on the effectiveness of government,” Fox says. “Elected officials, in turn, respond to public attitudes when determining economic policies. Finally, economic policies affect the state of the economy. In this way, economics affects politics, and politics affects economics.”

Fox is currently writing an academic book for “Business Express Press titled U.S. Politics and the American Macroeconomy.”

Fox teaches macroeconomics and international economics in the Phillips School of Business.

Be Sociable, Share!

    EVENTS & DEADLINES

      Sep
      20
      9.20 - 8:30am

      Fall Open House
      Oct
      13
      10.13 - 8:30am

      Fall Open House
    View the Full Calendar

    University News

    Lauryn Polo
    Class of 2014 Profile: Lauryn Polo Pursues M.A. in Writing
    read more
    SOE Reading Institute 1
    Students Wrap Up Reading Institute with Books and Skills for the Future
    read more
    Nicholas Bamatter
    Class of 2014 Profile: Nick Bamatter Commences Business Career
    read more
    View All

    HPU SOCIAL
    Connect with us
    On the Social page, you can view all of High Point University’s social media feeds, connect to specific majors and schools on Facebook, and get the latest updates about what’s happening on campus.