HIGH POINT, N.C., Sept. 25, 2014 – The most recent High Point University Poll finds nearly half (49 percent) of North Carolina’s likely voters say there is no chance they would vote for Hillary Clinton if she ran for president in 2016, while about the same proportion say there is either some or a good chance (47 percent total) they would vote for her.
“Although we are not yet past the 2014 midterm elections, the next presidential campaign is on a lot of people’s minds,” said Brian McDonald, assistant director of the HPU Poll. “This snapshot shows that many North Carolina likely voters know Hillary Clinton well enough and have done enough thinking about the race that they will offer an opinion – though one that is deeply split in terms of preferences.”
Likely voters – Chance of voting for Hillary Clinton in 2016
How much of a chance is there that you would vote for Hillary Rodham Clinton if she ran for president in 2016?
Good chance – 31 percent
Some chance – 16 percent
No chance – 49 percent
Don’t know/refused – 4 percent
(North Carolina likely voter sample surveyed Sept. 13-18, n = 410 and margin of sampling error approximately = +/- 5 percent)
The High Point University Survey Research Center fielded this survey with live interviewers calling between Sept.13 and 18, 2014. The responses came from 410 likely voters with landline or cellular telephones. First, registered voters were identified using a Registration Based Sampling system that selected possible respondents from a statewide, North Carolina list of registered voters that had landline and cell phone numbers appended by a contractor. Likely voters were estimated by asking a screening question: “On November 4, North Carolina will hold their general election for U.S. Senate, U.S. House of Representatives and other offices. How certain are you that you will vote in this election? Are you almost certain to vote, you probably will vote, your chances of voting are 50/50, or you will not vote in the November 2014 general election?” The only registered voters who passed the screen were those who responded “almost certain” or “probably” to the screening question AND voted in the 2010 general election in North Carolina, registered in North Carolina after 2010 and voted in the 2012 general election, or registered in North Carolina since 2012 passed the screen. The Survey Research Center contracted with Survey Sampling International to acquire this sample. The survey has an estimated margin of sampling error of approximately 5 percentage points for this population of respondents. The data are weighted toward estimated turn out figures for age, gender and race based on North Carolina Board of Elections data and exit polls from past campaigns. In addition to sampling error, factors such as question wording and other methodological choices in conducting survey research can introduce additional error into the findings of opinion polls.
Further results and methodological details from the most recent survey and past studies can be found at the Survey Research Center website at http://www.highpoint.edu/src/. The materials on-line include past press releases as well as memos summarizing the findings (including approval ratings) for each poll since 2010.
Dr. Martin Kifer, assistant professor of political science, serves as the director of the HPU Poll, and Brian McDonald serves as the assistant director of the HPU Poll.