HPU Poll: NC, CO and NH Split on Hillary Clinton for President

HIGH POINT, N.C., Oct. 15, 2014 – A new High Point University Poll finds a near-perfect split among North Carolina, Colorado and New Hampshire likely voters regarding their support for Hillary Clinton if she ran for president in 2016.

The HPU Poll fielded surveys in key races that may determine who controls the U.S. Senate. Questions included examining voters’ opinions on the key “horse races” themselves, presidential job performance, direction of the country, economic conditions, healthcare reform and the parties in Congress. The poll also asked the three states questions on timely issues such as marijuana legalization, gun rights and U.S. foreign policy priorities to gain a comparative snapshot of the country.

Nearly half of likely voters in North Carolina (48 percent) and Colorado (49 percent) say there is either some or a good chance they would vote for her, while the same respective percentage in each state say there is no chance they would vote for her. In New Hampshire, 50 percent of likely voters say there is either some or a good chance, while 46 percent say there is no chance.

“The results on this question are like those we are seeing on most of the political questions we asked voters in these three states. People are divided in similar ways across the three states,” says Martin Kifer, director of the HPU Poll. “In this case, we can see that Secretary Clinton’s potential run for president receives about the same support in these competitive 2014 states.”

Comparative results for these three surveys, including the issues mentioned here, are available at: http://www.highpoint.edu/src/files/2014/10/32memoC.pdf.

 

Likely voters – Chance of voting for Hillary Clinton in 2016

How much of a chance is there that you would vote for Hillary Rodham Clinton if she ran for president in 2016?

Likely N.C. Voters Likely C.O. Voters Likely N.H. Voters
Good chance 28 percent 28 percent 29 percent
Some chance 20 percent 21 percent 21 percent
No chance 48 percent 49 percent 46 percent
(Don’t know/undecided) 4 percent 2 percent 3 percent

 

 

The High Point University Survey Research Center fielded the North Carolina version of this survey with live interviewers calling between Sept. 30 and Oct. 9, 2014. The responses came from 584 likely voters with landline (277 interviews) or cellular (307 interviews) telephones. First, the HPU Poll identified registered voters using a Registration Based Sampling (Voter List Sample) system that selected possible respondents from a statewide, North Carolina list of registered voters that had landline and cell phone numbers appended by a contractor. Likely voters were estimated by asking a screening question: “On November 4, North Carolina will hold its general election for U.S. Senate, U.S. House of Representatives and other offices. How certain are you that you will vote in this election? Are you almost certain to vote, you probably will vote, your chances of voting are 50/50, or you will not vote in the November 2014 general election?” The only registered voters who passed the screen were those who responded “almost certain” or “probably” to the screening question AND voted in the 2010 general election in North Carolina, registered in North Carolina after 2010 and voted in the 2012 general election, or registered in North Carolina since 2012. The Survey Research Center contracted with Survey Sampling International to acquire this sample, which was originally compiled by Aristotle (Washington, D.C.). The survey has an estimated margin of sampling error of approximately 4.1 percentage points for this population of respondents. The data are weighted toward estimated turn out figures for age, gender and race based on North Carolina Board of Elections data and exit polls from past campaigns. In addition to sampling error, factors such as question wording and other methodological choices in conducting survey research can introduce additional error into the findings of opinion polls.

Further results and methodological details from the most recent survey and past studies can be found at the Survey Research Center website at http://www.highpoint.edu/src/. The materials online include past press releases as well as memos summarizing the findings (including approval ratings) for each poll since 2010.

For the Colorado version of this study,SurveyUSA interviewed 876 state of Colorado registered voters Oct. 4 through Oct. 8, 2014, using Registration Based Sample (aka Voter List Sample) purchased from Aristotle in Washington, D.C. To be included in the sample, a voter needed to have voted in both 2010 and 2012, or needed to have newly registered to vote thereafter. Of the 876 registered voters, 800 were determined to be likely to vote on or before Nov. 4, 2014. This research was conducted 100 percent by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (72 percent of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (28 percent of likely voters) were contacted by live operators, who hand-dialed the telephone, secured the respondent’s cooperation, qualified the respondent, conducted the interview, and remained on the phone until the call was completed. Crosstabs of this study are available at http://goo.gl/niYXCq.

For the New Hampshire version of this study, SurveyUSA interviewed 850 state of New Hampshire registered voters Oct. 4 through Oct. 8, 2014, using Registration Based Sample (aka Voter List Sample) purchased from Aristotle in Washington, D.C. To be included in the sample, a voter needed to have voted in both 2010 and 2012, or needed to have newly registered to vote thereafter. Of the 850 registered voters, 824 were determined to be likely to vote on or before Nov. 4, 2014. This research was conducted 100 percent by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (72 percent of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (28 percent of likely voters) were contacted by live operators, who hand-dialed the telephone, secured the respondent’s cooperation, qualified the respondent, conducted the interview, and remained on the phone until the call was completed. Crosstabs of this study are available at http://goo.gl/Z4YmYX.

You can follow the HPU Poll on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/SurveyResearchCenter and Twitter at http://twitter.com/HPUSurveyCenter.

Dr. Martin Kifer, assistant professor of political science, serves as the director of the HPU Poll, and Brian McDonald serves as the assistant director of the HPU Poll.

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