HPU/N&R Poll: A Third of N.C. Workers See Paychecks Improve After Tax Reform

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HIGH POINT, N.C., Feb. 28, 2018 – A High Point University/News and Record Poll finds that about a third (33 percent) of working North Carolinians say they are losing less of their paychecks to taxes than before the recent tax reform law. Smaller percentages say they have received a pay raise or bonus from their employers.

When asked about the tax reform passed in December 2017, 33 percent of North Carolinians who reported being employed for wages say that they are seeing less in taxes deducted from their paycheck. Fourteen percent report more taxes being deducted, and equal percentages (26 percent) say there has been no change or they are not sure.

The poll also finds that 69 percent of these workers say they have not received and do not expect a bonus, and 63 percent have not and will not receive a pay raise after the tax reform. About 9 percent of these workers say they have received a bonus, and an additional 7 percent say they expect a bonus from their employer. Similarly, 10 percent say they have received a pay raise, and an additional 19 percent say they expect a pay raise after the tax reform.

“We are still very early in the implementation of the new tax rules, and it is important to remember that these numbers represent the impressions of workers rather than a direct reflection of who will benefit and how much,” says Dr. Martin Kifer, director of the HPU Poll.  “As businesses make decisions about their finances and workers learn more about how the new law affects them, we will have a better idea of the longer term legacy of this tax reform on views of President Trump’s administration.”

 

All adults – Employment status (Late February 2018)

Are you currently……

Employed for wages – 48 percent

Self-employed – 14 percent

Out of work and looking for work – 2 percent

Out of work but NOT currently looking for work – less than 1 percent

A homemaker – 4 percent

A student – 8 percent

Retired – 17 percent

Unable to work – 7 percent

(Don’t know/refused) – less than 1 percent

(All adult (North Carolina resident) sample surveyed Feb. 19-25, 2018, n = 513 and margin of sampling error approximately = +/- 4.3 percent)

 

All adults – Tax Cut Impact (Late February 2018)

As you may know, Congress and President Trump enacted tax reform in late 2017. We are interested in how this has affected your life. Would you say that after the tax reform you are having less in taxes deducted from each paycheck, more taxes deducted from your pay check, has there been no change, or are you not sure? (Asked OF those who answered employed for wages)

Less in taxes – 33 percent

More taxes – 14 percent

No change – 26 percent

Not sure – 26 percent

(Don’t know/Refuse) – 2 percent

(All adult (North Carolina resident) sample surveyed Feb. 19-25, 2018, n = 513 and margin of sampling error approximately = +/- 4.3 percent. The estimated margin of sampling error for the 246 respondents employed for wages is +/- 6.2 percent)

 

All adults – Bonuses from Employers (Late February 2018)

Since the tax reform was enacted, have you received or do you expect to receive a bonus from your employer? (Asked OF those who answered employed for wages)

Have received a bonus – 9 percent

Expect to receive a bonus – 7 percent

Have not and will not receive a bonus – 69 percent

Not sure – 13 percent

(Don’t know/Refuse) – 1 percent

(All adult (North Carolina resident) sample surveyed Feb. 19-25, 2018, n = 513 and margin of sampling error approximately = +/- 4.3 percent. The estimated margin of sampling error for the 246 respondents employed for wages is +/- 6.2 percent)

 

All adults – Raises from Employers (Late February 2018)

Since the tax reform was enacted, have you received or do you expect to receive a pay raise from your employer? (Asked OF those who answered employed for wages)

Have received a pay raise – 10 percent

Expect to receive a pay raise – 19 percent

Have not and will not receive a pay raise – 63 percent

Not sure – 7 percent

(Don’t know/Refuse) – 1 percent

(All adult (North Carolina resident) sample surveyed Feb. 19-25, 2018, n = 513 and margin of sampling error approximately = +/- 4.3 percent. The estimated margin of sampling error for the 246 respondents employed for wages is +/- 6.2 percent)

 

The most recent HPU Poll was fielded by live interviewers at the High Point University Survey Research Center calling on Feb. 19-25, 2018. The responses from a sample of all North Carolina counties came from 513 adults with landline or cellular telephones. The North Carolina worker subsample relied on responses from the participants about their own employment status and yielded a total of 246 respondents. The Survey Research Center contracted with Survey Sampling International to acquire this sample. The survey has an estimated margin of sampling error of approximately 4.3 percentage points for all adult respondents and an approximate margin of sampling error of 6.2 percent for the self-described workers (employed for wages). The adult population data is weighted toward population estimates for cellular and landline telephone use, age, gender, race, and education level based on U.S. Census and CDC numbers for North Carolina. In addition to sampling error, factors such as question wording and other methodological choices in conducting survey research can introduce additional error into the findings of opinion polls. Details from this survey are available at http://www.highpoint.edu/src/files/2018/02/57memoB.pdf.

Further results and methodological details from the most recent survey and past studies can be found at the Survey Research Center website at http://www.highpoint.edu/src/. The materials online include past press releases as well as memos summarizing the findings (including approval ratings) for each poll since 2010.

The HPU Poll reports methodological details in accordance with the standards set out by AAPOR’s Transparency Initiative, and the HPU Survey Research Center is a Charter Member of the Initiative. For more information, see

http://transparency.aapor.org/index.php/transparency.

You can follow the HPU Poll on Twitter at https://twitter.com/HPUSurveyCenter.

Dr. Martin Kifer, chair and associate professor of political science, serves as the director of the HPU Poll, and Brian McDonald serves as the associate director of the HPU Poll.

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