HPU Poll: Trump at 40 Percent Approval Among North Carolinians

HIGH POINT, N.C., March 28, 2018 – A High Point University Poll finds that North Carolinians give President Donald Trump a job approval rating of 40 percent. Meanwhile, a majority (64 percent) continue to say the country is headed in the wrong direction, and North Carolina residents are split on who they would vote for in U.S. Congressional and North Carolina General Assembly races if they were held today.

Half (50 percent) of North Carolina residents say they disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president, and the remaining 11 percent do not offer an opinion.

Just over one quarter (28 percent) of respondents say the country is headed in the right direction, which is similar to the 26 percent who said they felt the same way in March 2017.  In the current poll, 8 percent of respondents did not offer an opinion either way.

When asked about their choices for U.S. Congress, 41 percent of North Carolinians say they would vote for the Democratic Party’s candidate if the election were held today, and 35 percent say they would vote for the Republican Party’s candidate. A relatively substantial 19 percent say they did not know or were unsure for whom they would vote.

There were similar responses to these “generic ballot” questions about the elections for houses of the North Carolina General Assembly. Forty percent of these North Carolinians say they prefer the Democratic Party’s candidate in their local race for North Carolina House of Representatives, and 35 percent say they would vote Republican if the election was today with 21 percent undecided. Finally, 40 percent of the same respondents say they would vote Democratic in their local race for North Carolina Senate compared to 37 percent who say they would vote Republican and 19 percent who remain undecided or did not offer an opinion.

  “The most recent HPU Poll continues to show consistency in how North Carolinians feel about the job the president is doing,” says Brian McDonald, associate director of the HPU Poll and adjunct instructor of survey research methods. “This small deviation might not indicate any significant shift in how the state feels, and we will continue to track the public’s reactions to our Commander in Chief.”

 

All adults – Country Direction (March 2018)

Do you think things in this country are generally going in the right direction or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track?

 

Right direction – 28 percent

Wrong track – 64 percent

Don’t know/refused – 8 percent

(All adult (North Carolina resident) sample surveyed March 19-26, 2018, n = 402 and margin of sampling error approximately = +/- 4.9 percent)

 

All adults – Presidential Job Approval (March 2018)

Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Donald Trump is handling his job as president?

Approve – 40 percent

Disapprove – 50 percent

Don’t know/refuse – 11 percent

(All adult (North Carolina resident) sample surveyed March 19-26, 2018, n = 402 and margin of sampling error approximately = +/- 4.9 percent)

 

All adults – Generic Ballot – U.S. Congress (March 2018)

If the elections for U.S. Congress were being held TODAY, would you vote for the (Republican Party’s candidate) OR the (Democratic Party’s candidate) for Congress in your district? [PARTY ORDER RANDOMIZED]

Republican Candidate – 35 percent

Democratic Candidate – 41 percent

Other – 4 percent

Don’t know/Undecided/Refuse – 19 percent

(All adult (North Carolina resident) sample surveyed March 19-26, 2018, n = 402 and margin of sampling error approximately = +/- 4.9 percent)

 

All adults – Generic Ballot – North Carolina House (March 2018)

If the elections for North Carolina’s House of Representatives were being held TODAY, would you vote for the (Republican Party’s candidate) OR the (Democratic Party’s candidate) for Congress in your district? [PARTY ORDER RANDOMIZED]

Republican Candidate – 35 percent

Democratic Candidate – 40 percent

Other – 4 percent

Don’t know/Undecided/Refuse – 21 percent

(All adult (North Carolina resident) sample surveyed March 19-26, 2018, n = 402 and margin of sampling error approximately = +/- 4.9 percent)

 

All adults – Generic Ballot – North Carolina Senate (March 2018)

If the elections for North Carolina Senate were being held TODAY, would you vote for the (Republican Party’s candidate) OR the (Democratic Party’s candidate) for Congress in your district? [PARTY ORDER RANDOMIZED]

Republican Candidate – 37 percent

Democratic Candidate – 40 percent

Other – 4 percent

Don’t know/Undecided/Refuse – 19 percent

(All adult (North Carolina resident) sample surveyed March 19-26, 2018, n = 402 and margin of sampling error approximately = +/- 4.9 percent)

 

The most recent HPU Poll was fielded by live interviewers at the High Point University Survey Research Center calling on March 19-26, 2018. The responses from a sample of all North Carolina counties came from 402 adults with landline or cellular telephones. The registered voter subsample relied on responses from the participants about their own registration status and yielded a total of 336 respondents. The Survey Research Center contracted with Survey Sampling International to acquire this sample. The survey has an estimated margin of sampling error of approximately 4.9 percentage points for all adult respondents and an approximate margin of sampling error of 5.3 percent for the self-described registered voters. The data is weighted toward population estimates for cellular and landline telephone use, age, gender, race, and education level based on U.S. Census and CDC numbers for North Carolina. In addition to sampling error, factors such as question wording and other methodological choices in conducting survey research can introduce additional error into the findings of opinion polls. Details from this survey are available at http://www.highpoint.edu/src/files/2018/03/58memoA.pdf.

Further results and methodological details from the most recent survey and past studies can be found at the Survey Research Center website at http://www.highpoint.edu/src/. The materials online include past press releases as well as memos summarizing the findings (including approval ratings) for each poll since 2010.

The HPU Poll reports methodological details in accordance with the standards set out by AAPOR’s Transparency Initiative, and the HPU Survey Research Center is a Charter Member of the Initiative. For more information, see

http://transparency.aapor.org/index.php/transparency.

You can follow the HPU Poll on Twitter at https://twitter.com/HPUSurveyCenter.

Dr. Martin Kifer, chair and associate professor of political science, serves as the director of the HPU Poll, and Brian McDonald serves as the associate director of the HPU Poll.

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