HPU Poll: Majority in North Carolina Says Trump Will Successfully Pass His Programs

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HIGH POINT, N.C., Feb. 9, 2017 – The first High Point University Poll of 2017 finds that a majority of North Carolinians think President Donald Trump will be successful in passing his programs, but are somewhat divided about whether the same is true for Gov. Roy Cooper. North Carolina residents are also pessimistic about relations between Democrats and Republicans, as well as the divisions in the country and state.

Two-thirds (67 percent) of North Carolinians say that they think Trump will be successful in getting his programs passed into law while 23 percent think he will be unsuccessful. Forty-two percent of those same respondents say they think Governor Cooper will be successful in getting his programs passed while a third (33 percent) say he will be unsuccessful, and one-fourth (24 percent) do not offer an opinion either way.

North Carolinians disagree somewhat on who they want to see take the lead role in setting policy. Twenty-three percent say they want to see Trump take the lead role, while another 21 percent would like to see Republicans in Congress take the lead. Forty percent of respondents say they want Democrats in Congress setting policy.

There are similar partisan divisions amongst North Carolinians on who they would like to see setting policy in the state of North Carolina. About one-third of respondents say they want Cooper to have the lead role in setting policy, while 31 percent want to see Republicans in the General Assembly in that role, and 24 percent want to see Democrats in the General Assembly take the lead role.

In terms of their approval of Trump’s and Cooper’s policies, North Carolinians appear split. Forty percent of North Carolina residents say that, as best they can tell, they approve of Trump’s policies and plans for the future, while 52 percent say they disapprove. Forty-six percent say they approve of Roy Cooper’s policies and plans, as best they can tell, while 19 percent disapprove, and more than one-third (35 percent) do not offer an opinion either way.

“A relatively large majority of North Carolinians believe President Trump will pass his policy program, but as a whole they are less supportive of the policies themselves. In the case of Gov. Cooper, people in North Carolina are less sure he will be successful in passing his program, which makes sense given Republican control of the General Assembly,” says Dr. Martin Kifer, director of the HPU Poll and associate professor of political science. “And when it comes taking the lead on policy, there are divisions along partisan lines about who should do it – the executive or one of the parties in the legislature.”

North Carolinians are not particularly optimistic about Republicans and Democrats in Washington or Raleigh getting along better. Only one out of five (21 percent) North Carolina residents say they think relations between Republicans and Democrats in Washington will get better this year, while more than half (53 percent) say they will get worse and another quarter (24 percent) say they will stay the same. 

These respondents’ views of party relations in Raleigh are not much more positive. A similar 21 percent say they think that relations between Republicans and Democrats in Raleigh will get better this year, while equal percentages of North Carolinians say relations will get worse (37 percent) or stay about the same (37 percent). 

With three-quarters (75 percent) saying the people in the U.S. are more divided, these apparent partisan divisions among politicians exist at a time when North Carolinians continue to see the country more divided in the era after the 2016 elections. Forty-five percent of these same North Carolina residents say that in North Carolina after the 2016 elections people are not much more divided than usual, but nearly as many (44 percent) say that people in North Carolina are more divided.

“We do not see any lessening of North Carolinians’ sense of division in the country and the state,” says Brian McDonald, the associate director of the HPU Poll and an adjunct professor.  “From elected officials to the public as a whole, people see disunity and are telling us they are concerned about the lack of unity.”

 

All adults – Success of President Trump’s plans (January/February 2017)

Generally, do you think DONALD TRUMP will be successful or unsuccessful in getting his programs passed into law?

Successful – 67 percent
Unsuccessful – 23 percent
Don’t know/refused – 9 percent

(All adult (North Carolina resident) sample surveyed Jan. 28 – Feb. 3, 2017, n = 405 and margin of sampling error approximately = +/- 4.9 percent)

 

All adults – Lead role in setting national policy (January/February 2017)

Who do you want to see take the lead role in setting policy for the country — President Trump, Republicans in Congress, or Democrats in Congress?

President Trump – 23 percent
Republicans in Congress – 21 percent
Democrats in Congress – 40 percent
Don’t know/refused – 16 percent

(All adult (North Carolina resident) sample surveyed Jan. 28 – Feb. 3, 2017, n = 405 and margin of sampling error approximately = +/- 4.9 percent)

 

All adults – Approval of President Trump plans for future (January/February 2017)

As best you can tell, do you approve or disapprove of DONALD TRUMP’s policies and plans for the future?

Approve – 40 percent
Disapprove – 52 percent
Don’t know/refused – 8 percent

(All adult (North Carolina resident) sample surveyed Jan. 28 – Feb. 3, 2017, n = 405 and margin of sampling error approximately = +/- 4.9 percent)

 

All adults – Success of Governor Cooper’s plans (January/February 2017)

Generally, do you think ROY COOPER will be successful or unsuccessful in getting his programs passed into law?

Successful – 42 percent
Unsuccessful – 33 percent
Don’t know/refused – 24 percent

(All adult (North Carolina resident) sample surveyed Jan. 28 – Feb. 3, 2017, n = 405 and margin of sampling error approximately = +/- 4.9 percent)

 

All adults – Lead role in setting state policy (January/February 2017)

Who do you want to see take the lead role in setting policy for the state of North Carolina — Governor Cooper, Republicans in the General Assembly, or Democrats in the General Assembly?

Governor Cooper – 35 percent
Republicans in General Assembly – 31 percent
Democrats in General Assembly – 24 percent
Don’t know/refused – 10 percent

(All adult (North Carolina resident) sample surveyed Jan. 28 – Feb. 3, 2017, n = 405 and margin of sampling error approximately = +/- 4.9 percent)

 

All adults – Approval of Governor Cooper’s plans for future (January/February 2017)

As best you can tell, do you approve or disapprove of ROY COOPER’S policies and plans for the future?

Approve – 46 percent
Disapprove – 19 percent
Don’t know/refused – 35 percent

(All adult (North Carolina resident) sample surveyed Jan. 28 – Feb. 3, 2017, n = 405 and margin of sampling error approximately = +/- 4.9 percent)

 

All adults – Party relations in DC (January/February 2017)

Do you think relations between Republicans and Democrats in Washington will get better this year, get worse, or stay the same as they are now?

Get better – 21 percent
Get worse – 53 percent
Stay about the same – 24 percent
Don’t know/refused – 2 percent

(All adult (North Carolina resident) sample surveyed Jan. 28 – Feb. 3, 2017, n = 405 and margin of sampling error approximately = +/- 4.9 percent)

 

All adults – Party relations in Raleigh (January/February 2017)

Do you think relations between Republicans and Democrats in Raleigh will get better this year, get worse, or stay the same as they are now?

Get better – 21 percent
Get worse – 37 percent
Stay about the same – 37 percent
Don’t know/refused – 5 percent

(All adult (North Carolina resident) sample surveyed Jan. 28 – Feb. 3, 2017, n = 405 and margin of sampling error approximately = +/- 4.9 percent)

 

All adults – Unity of American people after 2016 elections (January/February 2017)

Now, thinking about the American people as a whole after the 2016 elections, do you think that people in the U.S. are more united, more divided, or not much different than usual?

More united – 8 percent
More divided – 75 percent
Not much different than usual – 16 percent
Don’t know/refused – 1 percent

(All adult (North Carolina resident) sample surveyed Jan. 28 – Feb. 3, 2017, n = 405 and margin of sampling error approximately = +/- 4.9 percent)

 

All adults – Unity of North Carolinians after 2016 elections (January/February 2017)

Now, thinking about the people of North Carolina as a whole after the 2016 elections, do you think that people in North Carolina are more united, more divided, or not much different than usual?

More united – 10 percent
More divided – 44 percent
Not much different than usual – 45 percent
Don’t know/refused – 1 percent

(All adult (North Carolina resident) sample surveyed Jan. 28 – Feb. 3, 2017, n = 405 and margin of sampling error approximately = +/- 4.9 percent)

 

The most recent HPU Poll was fielded by live interviewers at the High Point University Survey Research Center calling on Jan. 28 – Feb. 3, 2017. The responses from a sample of all North Carolina counties came from 405 adults with landline or cellular telephones. The registered voter subsample relied on responses from the participants about their own registration status and yielded a total of 373 respondents. The Survey Research Center contracted with Survey Sampling International to acquire this sample. The survey has an estimated margin of sampling error of approximately 4.9 percentage points for all adult respondents and an approximate margin of sampling error of 5.1 percent for the self-described registered voters. The data is weighted toward population estimates for cellular and landline telephone use, age, gender, race, and party identification. In addition to sampling error, factors such as question wording and other methodological choices in conducting survey research can introduce additional error into the findings of opinion polls. Details from this survey are available at www.highpoint.edu/src/files/2017/02/50memoB.pdf.

Further results and methodological details from the most recent survey and past studies can be found at the Survey Research Center website at www.highpoint.edu/src. The materials online include past press releases as well as memos summarizing the findings (including approval ratings) for each poll since 2010.

The HPU Poll reports methodological details in accordance with the standards set out by AAPOR’s Transparency Initiative, and the HPU Survey Research Center is a Charter Member of the Initiative. For more information, see transparency.aapor.org/index.php/transparency.

You can follow the HPU Poll on Twitter at twitter.com/HPUSurveyCenter.

Dr. Martin Kifer, associate professor of political science, serves as the director of the HPU Poll, and Brian McDonald serves as the associate director of the HPU Poll.

 

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