HPU Poll: Majority of North Carolinians Say Russia Likely to Invade Ukraine

NC residents see China and Russia as the biggest threats to U.S. national security in a dangerous world.

HIGH POINT, N.C., Feb. 16, 2022 – In a recent High Point University Poll, most North Carolinians said that Russia is either very (30%) or somewhat (38%) likely to use troops on its border to invade Ukraine. Only 11% said it is not very likely, while 3% said it is not at all likely that Russia will invade Ukraine.

Some North Carolinians have been watching the situation between Russia and Ukraine carefully as 31% said they have heard a lot about the U.S and Russia meeting about Russia’s threats to Ukraine. Almost half (46%) said they have heard a little bit about the situation, and 19% said they have not heard much at all about the meetings about Russia’s threats against Ukraine.

Only 9% of North Carolina residents said the Biden Administration has been very effective in dealing with Russia’s threats against Ukraine. More people in North Carolina see the Biden Administration’s efforts to deal with Russia’s threats as somewhat effective (27%), not very effective (23%) or not at all effective (22%).

North Carolinians see China as the top threat to U.S. National Security in a world many see as more dangerous for the U.S. and the American people.

When asked which country they perceive as the single biggest threat to U.S. national security, 35% said that it is China. Russia is seen as the single biggest threat by 28% of North Carolinians. And North Korea (16%) and Iran (5%) were less likely to be seen as the biggest threat to U.S. national security.

On a scale of 0 – 10 where 0 means no threat at all and 10 means an extremely dangerous threat, North Carolinians gave China an average of 7.3, Russia an average of 7.2, and North Korea and Iran scored 7 out of 10.

North Carolinians were also somewhat divided over the U.S. role in the world and the relative level of safety for the U.S. and its people in the international system.

More North Carolinians (46%) said the U.S. should take an active part in world affairs than the approximately one-third (33%) who said the U.S. should stay out of world affairs.

About two-thirds (65%) of North Carolina’s public see the world becoming more dangerous for the U.S. and the American people.

“Some North Carolinians have been paying close attention to the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia, including the U.S. role in dealing with Russia’s threats,” says Dr. Martin Kifer, chair of HPU’s Department of Political Science and director of the HPU Poll. “The standoff between Russia and Ukraine is the focus of many headlines, but we continue to find that more North Carolinians see China as the single biggest threat to U.S. national security.”

All adults – Take an Active Part or Stay Out of Foreign Affairs (January – February 2022)

Now we would like to ask you some questions about foreign affairs issues. Do you think it will be best for the future of the country if we take an active part in world affairs, or if we stay out of world affairs?

Active part – 46%
Stay out – 33%
Unsure – 21%

(Telephone and online interviews with North Carolina residents, surveyed Jan. 21 – Feb. 4, n = 884 and credibility interval is +/- 3.4%)

All adults – Safer or More Dangerous World (January – February 2022)

Thinking about current U.S. relations with the rest of the world, would you say that the world is becoming safer or more dangerous for the U.S. and the American people?

Safer – 17%
More dangerous – 65%
Unsure – 18%

(Telephone and online interviews with North Carolina residents, surveyed Jan. 21 – Feb. 4, n = 884 and credibility interval is +/- 3.4%)

All adults – Safer or More Dangerous World (January – February 2022)

 On a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 means not a threat at all and 10 means an extremely dangerous threat, how much of a threat is each of these countries to U.S. national security? (COUNTRIES PRESENTED IN RANDOMIZED ORDER. AVERAGE IS MEAN OF RESPONSES ON THE 0 – 10 SCALE)

(Telephone and online interviews with North Carolina residents, surveyed Jan. 21 – Feb. 4, n = 884 and credibility interval is +/- 3.4%)

NC residents – Single Biggest National Security Threat to US (January – February 2022)

Which of these countries do you perceive as the single biggest threat to U.S. national security? (COUNTRIES PRESENTED IN RANDOMIZED ORDER)

China – 35%

Russia – 28%

North Korea – 16 %

Iran – 5%

Some other country – 2%

Don’t know/Refuse/Unsure – 14%

(Telephone and online interviews with North Carolina residents, surveyed Jan. 21 – Feb. 4, n = 884 and credibility interval is +/- 3.4%)

NC residents – How Much Heard about U.S., Russia and Ukraine (January – February 2022)

 How much have you heard about the U.S. and Russia meeting about Russia’s threats to Ukraine? Have you heard… a lot, a little, or not much at all?

A lot – 31%

A little – 46%

Nothing at all – 19%

Unsure – 5%

(Telephone and online interviews with North Carolina residents, surveyed Jan. 21 – Feb. 4, n = 884 and credibility interval is +/- 3.4%)

NC residents – How Likely is Russian Invasion of Ukraine (January – February 2022)

How likely do you think it is that Russia will use troops on its border to invade Ukraine?

Very likely – 30%

Somewhat likely – 38%

Not very likely – 11%

Not at all likely – 3%

Unsure – 16%

(Telephone and online interviews with North Carolina residents, surveyed Jan. 21 – Feb. 4, n = 884 and credibility interval is +/- 3.4%)

NC residents – Biden Administration Effectiveness Against Russian Threats (January – February 2022)

 How effective do you think the Biden Administration has been in dealing with Russia’s threats against Ukraine?

Very effective – 9%

Somewhat effective – 27%

Not very effective – 23%

Not at all effective – 22%

Unsure – 18%

(Telephone and online interviews with North Carolina residents, surveyed Jan. 21 – Feb. 4, n = 884 and credibility interval is +/- 3.4%)

The most recent HPU Poll was fielded by live interviewers at the High Point University Survey Research Center calling on Jan. 21 through Feb. 4, 2022, and an online survey was fielded at the same time. The responses from a sample of all North Carolina counties came from 884 adults interviewed online (820 respondents) as well as landline or cellular telephones (64 respondents). The Survey Research Center contracted with dynata, formerly Research Now SSI, to acquire these samples, and fielded the online survey using the SRC’s Qualtrics platform. This is a combined sample of live phone interviews and online interviews. The online sampling is from a panel of respondents, and their participation does not adhere to usual assumptions associated with random selection. Therefore, it is not appropriate to assign a classic margin of sampling error for the results. In this case, the SRC provides a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points to account for a traditional 95% confidence interval for the estimates (plus or minus 3.3 percentage points) and a design effect of 1.07 (based on the weighting). The data is weighted toward population estimates for age, gender, race/ethnicity, and education based on U.S. Census numbers for North Carolina. The final stage of weighting ensures proper weighting of the online and live interviews. Factors such as question wording and other methodological choices in conducting survey research can introduce additional errors into the findings of opinion polls. Details from this survey are here.

Further results and methodological details from the most recent survey and past studies can be found at the Survey Research Center website. The materials online include past press releases as well as memos summarizing the findings (including approval ratings) for each poll since 2010.

The HPU Poll reports methodological details in accordance with the standards set out by AAPOR’s Transparency Initiative, and the HPU Survey Research Center is a Charter Member of the Initiative. See more information here.

You can follow the HPU Poll on Twitter here.

Dr. Martin Kifer, chair and associate professor of political science, serves as the director of the HPU Poll, and Brian McDonald is the associate director of the HPU Poll.