100th HPU Poll: North Carolina Registered Voters Split on Generic Ballots

• Presidential approval at 33%, U.S. Congress at 17% among N.C. Registered Voters
• Majority in N.C. say that the country (73%) is on the wrong track
• U.S. Congress Generic Ballot: 44% Republican, 41% Democrat
• N.C. Governor Generic Ballot: 44% Democrat, 42% Republican
• Presidential Generic Ballot: 43% Republican, 40% Democrat

HIGH POINT, N.C., Feb. 5, 2024 – The 100^th HPU Poll finds registered voters in North Carolina are split in their intended votes for U.S. President and U.S. Congress, as well as the North Carolina Governor, House of Representatives and Senate.

The most recent HPU Poll included registered voters who were asked if elections were held today, who would they vote for. When asked about their choices for President of the United States, 43% of these self-identified registered voters say they would vote for the Republican Party’s candidate if the election were held today, 40% say they would vote for the Democratic Party’s candidate, and 7% say they would vote for another party’s candidate if one were on the ballot.

When asked about their choices for U.S. Congress, 44% of these voters say they would vote for the Republican Party’s candidate if the election were held today, 41% say they were more likely to vote for the Democratic Party’s candidate, and 4% say they would vote for another party’s candidate if one were on the ballot.

When asked about their choices for North Carolina Governor, 44% of these voters say they would vote for the Democratic Party’s candidate if the election were held today, 42% say they would vote for the Republican Party’s candidate, and 4% say they would vote for another party’s candidate.

When asked about their choices for North Carolina House of Representatives, 43% of these voters say they would vote for the Democratic Party’s candidate if the election were held today, 42% say they would vote for the Republican Party’s candidate, and 3% say they would vote for another party’s candidate.

When asked about their choices for North Carolina Senate, 43% of respondents say they would vote for the Democratic Party’s candidate, 42% say they would vote for the Republican Party’s candidate, and 4% say they would vote for another party’s candidate if one were on the ballot.

More North Carolina voters say inflation (72%), national security (71%), school safety (70%), protecting democracy (66%) and health care in general (66%) are very important issues for policymakers in Washington, D.C., to deal with than any of the other issues in the poll.

A majority of respondents say supporting veterans (65%), education (64%), taxes (60%), immigration (60%), voting integrity (59%), gas prices (57%), civil rights (56%), law enforcement (56%) and guns (53%) are very important issues for lawmakers in Washington to deal with.

Less than 50% of North Carolina registered voters say abortion (49%), climate change (43%), the war between Israel and Hamas (34%), COVID-19 (31%) and the war in Ukraine (30%) are very important issues for national policymakers to deal with.

The poll also asked North Carolina registered voters which political party would do a better job dealing with each of the national issues. There was at least a 10% difference between how much better they say Republicans deal with the issues of national security (15% difference between the parties), immigration (16%), inflation (15%), gas prices (15%), supporting veterans (12%), taxes (10%) and law enforcement (13%) compared to Democrats.

Democrats have advantages on issues like climate change (20% difference between the parties), civil rights (13%), abortion (13%), health care in general (11%) and COVID-19 (10%).

Republicans may have smaller advantages on issues like the war between Israel and Hamas (7% difference between the parties) and the war in Ukraine (4% difference).

North Carolina registered voters did not find much difference overall in how well Republicans and Democrats deal with issues like protecting democracy, education, voting integrity, school safety and guns.

Respondents also give President Biden a job approval rating of 33%, and 73% say that the country is on the wrong track. More than half of North Carolina voters disapprove of the job the U.S. Congress (68%) and the U.S. Supreme Court (52%) are doing.

The poll also asked North Carolina voters whether they have favorable or unfavorable views about a list of people or things that are in the news. More than one-third of respondents had a favorable view of N.C. Gov. Roy Cooper (50%), Donald Trump (42%), the Democratic Party (38%), the Republican Party (39%), the N.C. Supreme Court (37%), the N.C. General Assembly (38%), Joe Biden (36%), the U.S. Supreme Court (35%) and artificial intelligence (32%).

More than half said they have an unfavorable view of the U.S. Congress (66%) and cryptocurrency (51%).

“As the 2024 election year begins, voters are closely divided on their preferences for elected offices in North Carolina,” says Dr. Martin Kifer, chair of HPU’s Department of Political Science and director of the HPU Poll. “Registered voters are telling us that some of the same issues are most important this year as last with inflation, national security and school safety at the top of the list.”

 Registered Voter Screening Questions (January 2024)

These days, many people are so busy they can’t find time to register to vote or move around so often they don’t get a chance to re-register. Are you now registered to vote in your precinct or election district or haven’t you been able to register so far? [Asked of all respondents, n = 1042 NC adults]

Yes – 83%

No – 13%

Unsure – 4%

Are you absolutely certain that you are registered to vote, or is there a chance that your registration has lapsed because you moved or for some other reason? [Asked of 867 respondents who said they were registered to vote in the previous question, also excluding “unsure” responses]

Yes, absolutely certain – 94%

Chance registration has lapsed – 4%

No, not registered – 1%

Unsure – 2%

Therefore, self-identified voters are those respondents who passed the previous screening questions.  n = 813.

 N.C. Registered Voters – Country Direction (January 2024)

Do you think things in this country [are generally going in the right direction or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track]?

Right direction – 21%

Wrong track – 73%

Unsure – 7%

N.C. Registered Voters – Presidential Approval (January 2024)

Do you [approve or disapprove] of the way that Joe Biden is handling his job as president?

Approve – 33%

Disapprove – 57%

Unsure – 10%

N.C. Registered Voters – Approval of the U.S. Congress (January 2024)

Do you [approve or disapprove] of the way that the U.S. Congress is handling its job?

Approve – 17%

Disapprove – 68%

Unsure – 14% 

N.C. Registered Voters – Approval of the U.S. Supreme Court (January 2024)

Do you [approve or disapprove] of the way that the U.S. Supreme Court is handling its job?

Approve – 32%

Disapprove – 52%

Unsure – 16%

N.C. Registered Voters – Favorability (January 2024)

Here is a list of people and things. Please indicate whether you have [a favorable or an unfavorable] view of each of them. [Items presented in a random order]

N.C. Registered Voters – U.S. Congress Generic Ballot (January 2024)

If the elections for U.S. Congress were being held today, would you vote for the [‘Democratic Party’s candidate’ or the ‘Republican Party’s candidate’] for U.S. House of Representatives in your district?

Republican – 44%

Democrat – 41%

Another party – 4%

Unsure – 10%

N.C. Registered Voters – N.C. Governor Generic Ballot (January 2024)

If the elections for North Carolina Governor were being held today, would you vote for the [‘Democratic Party’s candidate’ or the ‘Republican Party’s candidate’] for North Carolina Governor?

Republican – 42%

Democrat – 44%

Another party – 4%

Unsure – 10%

N.C. Registered Voters – U.S. President Generic Ballot (January 2024)

If the elections for President of the United States were being held today, would you vote for the [‘Democratic Party’s candidate’ or the ‘Republican Party’s candidate’] for U.S. President?

Republican – 43%

Democrat – 40%

Another party – 7%

Unsure – 10%

N.C. Registered Voters – N.C. House of Representatives Generic Ballot (January 2024)

If the elections for the North Carolina House of Representatives in Raleigh were being held today, would you vote for the [‘Democratic Party’s candidate’ or the ‘Republican Party’s candidate’] for N.C. House in your district?

Republican – 42%

Democrat – 43%

Another party – 3%

Unsure – 12%

N.C. Registered Voters – N.C. Senate Generic Ballot (January 2024)

If the elections for the North Carolina Senate in Raleigh were being held today, would you vote for the [‘Democratic Party’s candidate’ or the ‘Republican Party’s candidate’] for N.C. Senate in your district?

Republican – 42%

Democrat – 43%

Another party – 4%

Unsure – 11%

N.C. Registered Voters – Issue Importance (January 2024)

How important do you think it is for policymakers in Washington, D.C. to deal with each of these issues? Would you say very important, somewhat important, not very important, or not at all important? [Items presented in a random order]

N.C. Registered Voters – Issue Ownership (January 2024)

Below is a list of issues that political parties in Washington, D.C., might have to deal with. For each issue, please tell me whether you think [Democratic Party or the Republican Party] would do a better job dealing with the issue. [Items presented in a random order]

HPU Poll 100 was fielded by the High Point University Survey Research Center on Jan. 16 through Jan. 26 as an online survey using a panel of respondents recruited and maintained by Dynata. Dynata sent invitations to its panel of N.C. respondents and the SRC collected 1,042 responses on its Qualtrics platform. The SRC used two screening questions (reprinted above) to identify respondents who said they were registered voters. The SRC did all data analysis. The online sample is from a panel of respondents, and their participation does not adhere to usual assumptions associated with random selection. Therefore, it is not appropriate to assign a classic margin of sampling error for the results. In this case, the SRC provides a credibility interval for the full sample of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points to account for a traditional 95% confidence interval for the estimates (plus or minus 3.0 percentage points) and a design effect of 1.2 (based on the weighting). The credibility interval for the self-identified registered voters is therefore plus or minus 3.8 percent. The data is weighted toward population estimates for age, gender, race, ethnicity and education based on U.S. Census numbers for North Carolina. Factors such as question wording and other methodological choices in conducting survey research can introduce additional errors into the findings of opinion polls. Percentages may not add to 100 because of rounding.

Further results and methodological details from the most recent survey and past surveys can be found at the Survey Research Center website. Materials online include past press releases as well as memos summarizing the findings (including approval ratings) for each poll since 2010.

The HPU Poll reports methodological details in accordance with the standards set out by AAPOR’s Transparency Initiative, and the HPU Survey Research Center is a Charter Member of the Initiative.

You can follow the HPU Poll on Twitter.

Dr. Martin Kifer, chair and associate professor of political science, serves as the director of the HPU Poll, and Brian McDonald is the associate director of the HPU Poll.