HPU Poll 120: North Carolina Likely Voters Weigh in on U.S. Senate, North Carolina Supreme Court Races

HIGH POINT, N.C., April 16, 2026 – A new High Point University Poll of North Carolina likely voters examined preferences in the U.S. Senate race between Roy Cooper and Michael Whatley. The poll also looked at the North Carolina Supreme Court race between Anita Earls and Sarah Stevens, as well as generic ballot choices for U.S. House and several North Carolina races.

For likely voters, those individuals who have a higher likelihood of engaging in voting during elections, 50% noted they would vote for Cooper (Democrat), the former North Carolina governor. Meanwhile, 42% indicated they would vote for Whatley (Republican).

In the North Carolina Supreme Court election, 43% of likely voters said they would vote for Earls (Democrat) compared to 43% who would vote for Stevens (Republican).

For the U.S. House of Representatives generic ballot, 48% of likely voters would vote for the Democratic candidate and 44% would vote for the Republican candidate.

In voting for a candidate for the North Carolina House of Representatives, likely voters indicated they would vote for the Democratic candidate (47%) over the Republican candidate (43%).

The election for the North Carolina Senate showed a difference of four points among likely voters. Nearly half (48%) selected the Democratic candidate and 44% selected the Republican candidate.

North Carolina Likely Voters – U.S. Senate Election

If the election for U.S. Senator were being held today, who would you vote for?

Roy Cooper (Democrat) – 50%

Michael Whatley (Republican) – 42%

Someone else/another party – 2%

Unsure/Would not vote – 6%

North Carolina Likely Voters – North Carolina Supreme Court Election

If the election for North Carolina Supreme Court were being held today, who would you vote for?

Anita Earls (Democrat) – 43%

Sarah Stevens (Republican) – 43%

Someone else/another party – 2%

Unsure/Would not vote – 13%

North Carolina Likely Voters – U.S. House of Representatives Generic Ballot

If the elections for U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the Republican or Democrat candidate for U.S. House of Representatives in your district?

Democrat – 48%

Republican – 44%

Another party – 2%

Unsure/Would not vote – 7%

North Carolina Likely Voters – North Carolina House of Representatives Generic Ballot

If the election for North Carolina House of Representatives in Raleigh were being held today, would you vote for the Republican Party’s candidate or the Democratic Party’s candidate for North Carolina House in your district?

Democrat – 47%

Republican – 43%

Someone else/another party – 2%

Unsure/Would not vote – 7%

North Carolina Likely Voters – North Carolina Senate Generic Ballot

If the election for North Carolina Senate in Raleigh were being held today, would you vote for the Republican Party’s candidate or the Democratic Party’s candidate for North Carolina Senate in your district?

Democrat – 48%

Republican – 44%

Someone else/another party – 2%

Unsure/Would not vote – 7%

Methodology

HPU Poll 120 was fielded by YouGov on behalf of the High Point University Survey Research Center from March 26 through April 6, 2026, as an online survey using a panel of respondents recruited and maintained by YouGov. YouGov sent invitations to its panel of North Carolina respondents and collected 914 responses on its proprietary survey platform and matched these responses down to 800. All respondents indicated that they are registered voters. Likely voters (n = 703) were calculated based on several factors: Respondents were asked about their political interest, 2024 presidential election vote, and 2020 presidential election vote. They received a point for being high in political interest, a point for having voted in 2020, and a point for having voted in the 2024 election. If they scored 2 or 3 on those three items, they were considered likely voters. All screening questions are reported in the memo accompanying this release (https://www.highpoint.edu/src/hpupoll/ ). The SRC did all data analysis. The online sample is from a panel of respondents, and their participation does not adhere to usual assumptions associated with random selection. Therefore, it is not appropriate to assign a classic margin of sampling error for the results. The poll interviewed a total of 800 North Carolina residents. In this case, the SRC provides a credibility interval of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points to account for a traditional 95% confidence interval for the estimates (plus or minus 3.5 percentage points) and a design effect of 1.4 (based on the weighting). For the likely voters (n = 703), that credibility interval is 4.3 percentage points. The respondents were matched to a sampling frame on gender, age, race and education. The frame was constructed by stratified sampling from the full 2023 American Community Survey (ACS) 1-year sample with selection within strata by weighted sampling with replacements (using the person weights on the public use file). The matched cases were weighted to the sampling frame using propensity scores. The matched cases and the frame were combined and a logistic regression was estimated for inclusion in the frame. The propensity score function included age, gender, race/ethnicity, years of education and home ownership. The propensity scores were grouped into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the frame and post-stratified according to these deciles. The weights were then raked along 2024 presidential vote choice and a four-way stratification of gender, age (4-categories), race (4-categories), and education (4-categories), to produce the final weight. Factors such as question wording and other methodological choices in conducting survey research can introduce additional errors into the findings of opinion polls. Percentages may not add to 100 due to rounding.

Further results and methodological details from the most recent survey and past surveys can be found at the Survey Research Center website. Materials online include past press releases as well as memos summarizing the findings for each poll since 2010.

The HPU Poll reports methodological details in accordance with the standards set out by AAPOR’s Transparency Initiative, and the HPU Survey Research Center is a Charter Member of the Initiative.

Dr. Martin Kifer, chair and professor of political science, serves as the executive director of the HPU Poll for the Survey Research Center.

Dr. J.R. Moller serves as the staff director of the HPU Poll for the Survey Research Center.