HPU/YouGov Poll: North Carolina Likely Voters Weigh in on U.S. Senate Race and More
HIGH POINT, N.C., Oct. 28, 2026 – A new High Point University and YouGov poll of North Carolina likely voters found that 54% said they would vote for Roy Cooper (Democrat) and 40% would vote for Michael Whatley (Republican) in the 2026 U.S. Senate race.
The poll also found 51% of likely voters said they would vote for Anita Earls (Democrat) in the 2026 North Carolina Supreme Court race, while 43% said they would vote for Sarah Stevens (Republican).
For the U.S. House of Representatives generic ballot, 52% of likely voters said they would vote for the Democratic candidate and 43% said they would vote for the Republican candidate.
In voting for a candidate for the North Carolina House of Representatives, 50% of likely voters indicated they would vote for the Democratic candidate over the Republican candidate (44%).
The election for the North Carolina Senate showed a similar pattern. A little more than half (52%) selected the Democratic candidate, and 43% favored the Republican candidate.
The poll also asked likely voters about the performance of elected officials and government institutions. Likely voters gave President Donald Trump an approval rating of 37%, while 57% disapproved.
North Carolina Governor Josh Stein received a 50% approval rating, while 32% disapproved.
When asked if they approved or disapproved of the way the U.S. Supreme Court is handling its job, 35% of likely voters indicated they approved, while 46% disapproved.
About one in five likely voters (19%) approved of the way the U.S. Congress is handling its job, and 66% said they disapproved.
A majority of likely voters (62%) said that the country is on the wrong track, while 31% said the country was headed in the right direction.
Not quite one-third of likely voters (30%) said the state of North Carolina was headed in the right direction, while 48% said it was on the wrong track.
Question wordings:
North Carolina Likely Voters – Country Direction (October 2026)
Do you think things in this country are [generally going in the right direction or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track]?
Right direction – 31%
Wrong track – 62%
Unsure –8%
North Carolina Likely Voters – State Direction (October 2026)
Do you think things in North Carolina are [generally going in the right direction or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track]?
Right direction – 30%
Wrong track – 48%
Unsure – 21%
North Carolina Likely Voters – U.S. Senate Election (October 2026)
If the elections for U.S. Senator were being held today, who would you vote for? (Candidates listed in ballot order)
Michael Dublin (Green Party) – 1%
Roy Cooper (Democratic Party) – 54%
Shannon Bray (Libertarian Party) – 2%
Michael Whatley (Republican Party) – 40%
Unsure/Would not vote – 4%
North Carolina Likely Voters – North Carolina Supreme Court Election (October 2026)
If the elections for North Carolina Supreme Court were being held today, who would you vote for? (Candidates listed in ballot order)
Anita Earls (Democratic Party) – 51%
Sarah Stevens (Republican Party) – 43%
Unsure/Would not vote – 6%
North Carolina Likely Voters – U.S. House of Representatives Generic Ballot (October 2026)
If the elections for U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the [Republican Party’s candidate or Democratic Party’s candidate] for U.S. House of Representatives in your district?
Democrat – 52%
Republican – 43%
Another party – 2%
Unsure/Would not vote – 3%
North Carolina Likely Voters – North Carolina House of Representatives Generic Ballot (October 2026)
If the elections for North Carolina House of Representatives in Raleigh were being held today, would you vote for the [Republican Party’s candidate or the Democratic Party’s candidate] for North Carolina House of Representatives in your district?
Democrat – 50%
Republican – 44%
Another party – 2%
Unsure/Would not vote – 4%
North Carolina Likely Voters – North Carolina Senate Generic Ballot (October 2026)
If the elections for North Carolina Senate in Raleigh were being held today, would you vote for the [Republican Party’s candidate or the Democratic Party’s candidate] for North Carolina Senate in your district?
Democrat – 52%
Republican – 43%
Another party – 2%
Unsure/Would not vote – 3%
North Carolina Likely Voters – Presidential Approval (October 2026)
Do you [approve or disapprove] of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?
Approve – 37%
Disapprove – 57%
Unsure – 6%
North Carolina Likely Voters – Governor Approval (October 2026)
Do you [approve or disapprove] of the way that Josh Stein is handling his job as Governor of North Carolina?
Approve – 50%
Disapprove – 32%
Unsure – 18%
North Carolina Likely Voters – U.S. Supreme Court Approval (October 2026)
Do you [approve or disapprove] of the way that the U.S. Supreme Court is handling its job?
Approve – 35%
Disapprove – 46%
Unsure – 19%
North Carolina Likely Voters – U.S. Congress Approval (October 2026)
Do you [approve or disapprove] of the way that the U.S. Congress is handling its job?
Approve – 19%
Disapprove – 66%
Unsure – 15%
Methodology
HPU Poll 128 was fielded by the High Point University Survey Research Center in cooperation with YouGov from Oct. 1-20, 2026, as an online survey using a panel of respondents recruited and maintained by YouGov.
The HPU Survey Research Center drafted the survey instrument, which was approved by the HPU Institutional Review Board.
The SRC determined likely voters (n = 620) based on six factors. Respondents received one point for responding to each of six questions in ways associated with a higher likelihood of voting. The questions asked whether respondents voted in the 2024 general election; how much thought they had given to the upcoming U.S. Senate election; whether they knew where people in their neighborhood go to vote; how often they vote; whether they plan to vote in the election this November; and how they rated their chances of voting in November’s U.S. Senate election on a scale from 1 to 10. Self-identified registered voters who scored 5 or 6 on the six-item index were considered likely voters. All screening questions are reported in the memo accompanying this release (https://www.highpoint.edu/src/hpupoll/).
The online sample is from a panel of respondents, and their participation does not adhere to usual assumptions associated with random selection. Therefore, it is not appropriate to assign a classic margin of sampling error for the results.
The SRC/YouGov provide a credibility interval of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points for the self-identified registered voter (n = 800) sample to account for a traditional 95% confidence interval for the estimates and a design effect of 1.19 (based on the weighting). For the likely voters (n = 620), that credibility interval is 4.7 with a design effect of 1.42 (based on the weighting).
These are attempts to estimate error from the nature of the sample. Additional factors such as question wording and other methodological choices in conducting survey research can introduce additional errors into the findings of opinion polls.
YouGov interviewed 1046 North Carolinian registered voters who were then matched down to a sample of 800 to produce the final dataset. The respondents were matched to a sampling frame on gender, age, race, and education.
The frame was constructed by stratified sampling from the full 2024 American Community Survey (ACS) 1-year sample with selection within strata by weighted sampling with replacements (using the person weights on the public use file).
The matched cases were weighted to the sampling frame using propensity scores. The matched cases and the frame were combined, and a logistic regression was estimated for inclusion in the frame. The propensity score function included age, gender, race/ethnicity, years of education, and home ownership. The propensity scores were grouped into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the frame and post-stratified according to these deciles.
The weights were then raked along 2024 presidential vote choice and a four-way stratification of gender, age (4-categories), race (4-categories), and education (4-categories), to produce the final weight.
At each stage of the panelist lifecycle, YouGov embeds layered checks that validate authenticity, identify risk, and protect data quality. These include email validation, device fingerprinting, geolocation and VPN checks, respondent threat scoring, structured on-boarding, response quality surveys and id verification.
Additionally, within this survey, YouGov excluded respondents based on the following quality control measures: screening of high-risk respondents using geolocation and device fingerprinting information; attention, incidence, and straight lining checks; open-end quality assessment and open-end LLM detection.
Percentages may not add to 100 due to rounding.
Further results and methodological details from the most recent survey and past surveys can be found at the Survey Research Center website (https://www.highpoint.edu/src/hpupoll/). Materials online include past press releases as well as memos summarizing the findings for each poll since 2010.
Details about YouGov are available at https://yougov.com/en-us.
The HPU Poll reports methodological details in accordance with the standards set out by AAPOR’s Transparency Initiative, and the HPU Survey Research Center is a Charter Member of the Initiative.
Dr. Martin Kifer, chair and professor of political science, serves as the executive director of the HPU Poll for the Survey Research Center. Dr. J.R. Moller serves as the staff director of the HPU Poll for the Survey Research Center. Tiffany Medford serves as a program coordinator for the Survey Research Center.